Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:09:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
88 0x88b0…29d3 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$704 (-69%) realized −$700 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -81% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -83% what you keep after slip
Net edge-83%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$509
sports 20% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-82.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -80.9% -82.8% 0% 0% -89.0%
≤30d 5 -80.9% -82.8% 0% 0% -89.0%
≤90d 5 -80.9% -82.8% 0% 0% -89.0%
all 5 -80.9% -82.8% 0% 0% -89.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -82.8% 0% -89.0%
10% -84.4% 0% -90.1%
15% -85.9% 0% -91.0%
20% -87.3% 0% -91.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -88% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -81% · $-wt -88% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$141 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized−$700
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $102 −$5 -5%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $154 −$150 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $153 −$150 -98%
Czechia to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 25 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $205 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 19¢ $98 13h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 19h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 3¢ $154 19h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 29¢ $153 19h
Czechia to score first vs. Mexico? BUY Yes 35¢ $204 40h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 21¢ $205 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.52 · official $195.52 (match) · 8 history records