Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:01:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88b0…b118 sports 744 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 47d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$553 (-0%) realized +$369 · open −$922
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate63%215W / 127L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day65.7pace
Fees−$950est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$23,821now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 48d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$2,778
other 35% +$8,869
tech 16% +$1,388
world 1% +$4
economics 0% −$215
crypto 0% −$62
finance 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +18.3% +7.0% 68% 42% +2.5%
≤30d 244 +1.7% -8.0% 65% 45% -4.2%
≤90d 342 +5.3% -4.7% 63% 45% -2.9%
all 342 +5.3% -4.7% 63% 45% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.7% 45% -2.9%
10% ← realistic here -13.9% 33% -12.2%
15% -22.2% 26% -20.7%
20% -29.8% 22% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$158 vs −$206 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$23,821
Realized+$369
Unrealized−$922
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses215 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$950
Open positions417
Markets (closed)342 / 744
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$184
Trades / day65.7
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 417 History 342 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $4,256 $4,325 +$69 (+2%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? No 81¢ 74¢ $1,220 $1,102 −$117 (-10%)
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $495 in June? No 62¢ 99¢ $620 $988 +$368 (+59%)
Will Houston Astros win the 2026 AL West title? No 91¢ 92¢ $911 $920 +$8 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in June? No 83¢ 91¢ $830 $910 +$80 (+10%)
Will Caitlin Clark win the 2026 WNBA MVP award? No 90¢ 88¢ $900 $885 −$15 (-2%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Up 86¢ 86¢ $859 $859 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 39¢ 26¢ $1,195 $799 −$397 (-33%)
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $620 $635 +$15 (+2%)
Will Emiliano Buendía score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $549 $558 +$9 (+2%)
Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 National League Championship Series? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $598 $527 −$71 (-12%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 42¢ 50¢ $420 $495 +$75 (+18%)
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? No 87¢ 91¢ $435 $453 +$17 (+4%)
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? No 48¢ 45¢ $465 $433 −$31 (-7%)
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 80¢ 99¢ $349 $430 +$81 (+23%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 64¢ 42¢ $640 $425 −$215 (-34%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $480 in June? No 95¢ 97¢ $377 $383 +$6 (+2%)
Will New York Liberty win the 2026 WNBA Finals? No 78¢ 75¢ $390 $375 −$15 (-4%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 78¢ $351 $358 +$7 (+2%)
Will Detroit Tigers win the 2026 American League Championship Series? No 98¢ 98¢ $307 $307 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gabriel Magalhães score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 77¢ $237 $234 −$3 (-1%)
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $315 in June? No 98¢ 97¢ $216 $215 −$1 (-1%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $390 in June? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $202 $206 +$5 (+2%)
Will the New York Mets clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? No 79¢ 88¢ $184 $206 +$22 (+12%)
Will Antonio Rüdiger score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 92¢ $182 $203 +$21 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $460 +$540 +117%
Will Mason Miller win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Jun 17 $67 +$5 +7%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 17 $510 +$30 +6%
Will Kamilla Cardoso have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 20 Jun 17 $2 $0 +22%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +860%
Will United States concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G Jun 17 $106 +$6 +5%
Will Algeria go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Jun 17 $112 +$100 +89%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $637 +$363 +57%
Will Paige Bueckers have the highest assists per game in the WNBA 2026 Jun 17 $69 −$3 -4%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $191 −$191 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $670 +$330 +49%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 16 $202 −$195 -96%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $215 +$285 +133%
Will Las Vegas Aces win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Jun 16 $236 +$7 +3%
Will Alexander Isak score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $537 −$537 -100%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $107.50 Week of June 15 Jun 16 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of June 15 20 Jun 16 $73 −$73 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $280 +$220 +79%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $750 +$117 +16%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $328 +$172 +52%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $490 +$42 +8%
Will Indiana Fever win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +17%
Will Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Jun 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 15 $166 +$155 +93%
Will Uzbekistan concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $466 +$34 +7%
Will Algeria concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Drake Baldwin lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season? Jun 14 $245 +$3 +1%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $774 +$109 +14%
Will Alyssa Thomas have the highest assists per game in the WNBA 2026 Jun 14 $7 −$1 -14%
Will Morocco concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 14 $0 $0 +100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 in June? Jun 14 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $161 −$161 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $250 −$250 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $129 −$129 -100%
Will Sonia Citron have the highest steals per game in the WNBA 2026 re Jun 14 $0 $0 +123%
Will Alyssa Thomas have the highest steals per game in the WNBA 2026 r Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jacy Sheldon have the highest steals per game in the WNBA 2026 re Jun 14 $1 $0 +30%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $142 +$108 +76%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Jun 14 $144 +$3 +2%
Will Netherlands record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 13 $1 $0 +33%
Will the Baltimore Orioles clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 National League Championship Serie Jun 13 $87 +$6 +6%
Will Cristopher Sánchez strike out the most batters during the 2026 ML Jun 12 $17 +$7 +39%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $580 +$420 +72%
Will Olivia Miles have the highest assists per game in the WNBA 2026 r Jun 12 $0 $0 +100%
Will João Neves score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mason Miller win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? SELL No 100¢ $72 1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Up 90¢ $1 1h
Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? BUY No 94¢ $71 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $420 1h
Will A'ja Wilson win the 2026 WNBA MVP award? BUY Yes 66¢ $8 1h
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World SELL No 48¢ $565 2h
Will Chelsea Gray have the highest three point percentage in the WNBA BUY Yes 7¢ $0 2h
Will Chennedy Carter have the highest three point percentage in the WN SELL No 98¢ $0 2h
Will Chelsea Gray have the highest three point percentage in the WNBA BUY Yes 7¢ $0 2h
Will Chelsea Gray have the highest three point percentage in the WNBA BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Will Azzi Fudd have the highest three point percentage in the WNBA 202 SELL No 98¢ $7 2h
Will Nneka Ogwumike have the highest three point percentage in the WNB SELL No 98¢ $7 2h
Will A'ja Wilson win the 2026 WNBA MVP award? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 2h
Will A'ja Wilson win the 2026 WNBA MVP award? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 2h
Will A'ja Wilson have the highest points per game in the WNBA 2026 reg BUY No 46¢ $1 3h
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World SELL No 48¢ $21 3h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 64¢ $640 4h
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 5h
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 5h
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 5h
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 5h
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 5h
Will Angel Reese have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 2026 r BUY Yes 63¢ $2 6h
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World BUY No 44¢ $8 6h
Will Caitlin Clark win the 2026 WNBA MVP award? BUY No 90¢ $900 6h
Will Houston Astros win the 2026 AL West title? BUY No 91¢ $795 7h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 54¢ $468 7h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 55¢ $72 7h
Will Kamilla Cardoso have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 20 SELL Yes 3¢ $1 7h
Will Gabby Williams have the highest three point percentage in the WNB BUY No 96¢ $19 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,821.26 · official $23,817.70 (match) · 3500 history records