Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:05:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
88 0x88b1…797e other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+9%) realized +$5 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$30
14 days+$33
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$23
crypto 22% +$52
sports 4% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -6.9% -15.8% 62% 62% +4.9%
≤30d 10 -6.2% -15.2% 60% 60% +4.7%
≤90d 10 -6.2% -15.2% 60% 60% +4.7%
all 10 -6.2% -15.2% 60% 60% +4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 60% +4.7%
10% -23.3% 60% -5.3%
15% -30.7% 50% -14.4%
20% -37.5% 20% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$13 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage10d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 85¢ $124 $153 +$29 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $74 +$52 +70%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $13 +$4 +30%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $82 −$41 -50%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 +$12 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $19 +$10 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$4 +50%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -50%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $11 +$5 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $126 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $74 17h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? AND Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 BUY 2¢ $10 19h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $8 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $13 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $40 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $42 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $29 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $19 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 4d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 9d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 9d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $11 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.27 · official $119.91 · 22 history records