Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:33:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
88 0x88b2…f7a2 crypto 912 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 81d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,283 (+9%) realized +$3,283 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%478W / 637L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day33.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$420now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 82d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$3,060
world 18% −$1,116
other 2% −$341
finance 1% −$280
tech 1% −$187
sports 0% +$1,035
politics 0% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 223 -78.5% -80.6% 2% 2% -57.0%
≤30d 223 -78.5% -80.6% 2% 2% -57.0%
≤90d 1115 -21.8% -29.3% 43% 41% -28.7%
all 1115 -21.8% -29.3% 43% 41% -28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.3% 41% -28.7%
10% ← realistic here -36.0% 35% -35.5%
15% -42.2% 27% -41.7%
20% -47.9% 17% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$36 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$420
Realized+$3,283
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses478 / 637
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1115 / 912
History coverage82d ⚠
Avg bet$39
Trades / day33.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $70 $94 +$24 (+35%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+6%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 491 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $283 −$283 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $254 −$254 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$9 -215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$58 -498%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $171 −$171 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $25 3h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $18 3h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $17 3h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 3h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $46 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $45 23h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $23 27h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 27h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $25 33h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $25 34h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $22 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $18 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $420.48 · official $420.48 (match) · 3500 history records