Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:51:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
88 0x88b3…bad4 world 320 markets active 0h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,434 (+4%) realized +$2,103 · open +$331
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate53%145W / 127L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$10,281now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,415
7 days+$1,324
14 days+$1,530
30 days+$2,094
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 92% +$2,469
other 3% +$72
politics 2% −$67
sports 1% −$31
crypto 1% +$4
economics 0% +$64
finance 0% −$7
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 +2.6% -7.1% 34% 11% -5.9%
≤30d 176 +3.3% -6.5% 50% 19% -5.3%
≤90d 271 +2.6% -7.2% 54% 27% -5.6%
all 272 +2.6% -7.2% 53% 27% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 27% -5.6%
10% -16.1% 15% -14.7%
15% -24.2% 9% -22.9%
20% -31.6% 5% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$11 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.51 per $1 lost it wins $2.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$10,281
Realized+$2,103
Unrealized+$331
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses145 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions48
Markets (closed)272 / 320
History coverage91d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 272 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 94¢ 95¢ $4,872 $4,937 +$66 (+1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 88¢ 92¢ $1,715 $1,793 +$78 (+5%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 90¢ 92¢ $929 $953 +$23 (+3%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ 85¢ $550 $592 +$42 (+8%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 76¢ 80¢ $379 $400 +$21 (+6%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ 77¢ $392 $383 −$9 (-2%)
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.1% and 1.5%? Yes 24¢ 51¢ $130 $280 +$151 (+116%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Yes 72¢ 87¢ $144 $174 +$30 (+21%)
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%? Yes 35¢ 21¢ $264 $159 −$105 (-40%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $127 $126 −$1 (-1%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 59¢ 66¢ $59 $66 +$7 (+12%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 79¢ 88¢ $53 $59 +$6 (+12%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 95¢ $25 $48 +$22 (+89%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 69¢ 84¢ $35 $42 +$7 (+21%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 68¢ 81¢ $34 $41 +$7 (+20%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Yes 80¢ 79¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? Yes 68¢ 70¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will Jorginho Mello win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? Yes 88¢ 92¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? No 73¢ 86¢ $7 $9 +$1 (+17%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 66¢ 86¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+30%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 55¢ 46¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Yes 85¢ 81¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? Yes 83¢ 81¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $71 −$40 -56%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 15 $80 −$44 -55%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -18%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 15 $3 $0 -8%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 15 $3 $0 -8%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 15 $3 $0 -7%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 15 $4 $0 -4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 15 $4 $0 -1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 15 $4 $0 +7%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 15 $5 $0 -8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 15 $5 $0 -8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -12%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -7%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 15 $6 $0 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 15 $6 $0 -8%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $6 $0 -4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 15 $6 $0 -7%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 15 $6 $0 -7%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 15 $6 $0 -6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 15 $6 $0 -5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 15 $6 $0 -2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 15 $6 $0 +8%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 15 $7 $0 -4%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 $0 -5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $7 $0 -4%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 15 $7 $0 -2%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 15 $7 $0 -5%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 15 $7 $0 -3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 15 $7 $0 -5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 15 $7 $0 +6%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $7 $0 -4%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 15 $8 $0 -4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 15 $8 $0 -2%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 15 $8 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $8 $0 -3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $8 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $14 11m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $37 19m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $189 24m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $75 25m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $153 28m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 31¢ $22 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 37¢ $37 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 31¢ $9 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 36¢ $4 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 79¢ $4 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 46¢ $5 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 49¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 55¢ $5 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 55¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 55¢ $5 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 56¢ $6 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 57¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,281.23 · official $10,281.24 (match) · 1187 history records