Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:02:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88b3…f594 sports 184 markets active 0h ago coverage 304d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$424 (-48%) realized −$413 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%68W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$390
sports 29% −$16
other 3% −$5
politics 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 141 +1.1% -8.6% 46% 44% -9.6%
≤30d 141 +1.1% -8.6% 46% 44% -9.6%
≤90d 141 +1.1% -8.6% 46% 44% -9.6%
all 159 -3.1% -12.3% 43% 41% -54.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 41% -54.2%
10% -20.7% 36% -58.6%
15% -28.4% 33% -62.6%
20% -35.4% 30% -66.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

304d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$413
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses68 / 91
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions24
Markets (closed)159 / 184
History coverage304d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Galions 35¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+186%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Galions 86¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Anna Blinkova 63¢ 70¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Map Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) XLG Gaming 70¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+43%)
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Zeynep Sonmez 37¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Caty McNally 61¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Galions 58¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets McCartney Kessler 49¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Estevez vs. Linde: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 53¢ 57¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Set Handicap: Li (-1.5) vs Birrell (+1.5) Birrell 67¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Natus Vincere 54¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Set 1 Winner: Bellucci vs Bublik Bublik 64¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Bellucci vs. Bublik: Match O/U 22.5 Over 54¢ 55¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Samuel Linde Juan Estevez 86¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Francisco Cerundolo 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Set 1 Winner: Estevez vs Linde Estevez 82¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Alexei Popyrin 44¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Parma: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Alexander Weis Enrico Dalla Valle 69¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Ann Li 49¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Taylah Preston 44¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Set 1 Winner: Blinkova vs Preston Preston 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs XLG Gaming 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) Solary 34¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Solary 42¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $1 +$5 +510%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $1 +$1 +52%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $3 −$2 -63%
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Svajda Jun 15 $3 $0 -5%
Botic van de Zandschulp vs. Harry Wendelken: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $3 $0 -7%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $4 +$1 +22%
Set 1 Winner: Basilashvili vs Altmaier Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Nikoloz Basilashvili vs. Daniel Altmaier: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Zandschulp vs. Wendelken: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 +$5 +262%
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 +$3 +134%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +119%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $2 −$1 -43%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 15 $6 +$1 +12%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +26%
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Spread: Hurricanes (-3.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $4 −$2 -40%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$1 -47%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $3 −$1 -44%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $2 −$1 -25%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 14 $1 $0 -18%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs 4ikibamboni (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$1 -43%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Game Handicap: GAL (-2.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+2.5) Jun 14 $1 +$2 +188%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) Jun 14 $3 +$3 +86%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$1 -47%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) Jun 14 $2 $0 +23%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Gro Jun 14 $1 $0 -16%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 $0 -21%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $1 +$2 +187%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1 1m
Parma: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Alexander Weis BUY Enrico Dalla Valle 69¢ $1 15m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 58¢ $1 15m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $1 16m
Set 1 Winner: Blinkova vs Preston BUY Preston 41¢ $1 34m
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston BUY Taylah Preston 44¢ $1 42m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 27¢ $1 46m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 57¢ $1 47m
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston BUY Anna Blinkova 60¢ $1 55m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 35¢ $1 1h
Set 1 Winner: Blinkova vs Preston BUY Preston 39¢ $1 1h
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) BUY Solary 23¢ $1 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 88¢ $1 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 85¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 65¢ $1 2h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 88¢ $1 2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 30¢ $1 2h
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Svajda BUY Svajda 29¢ $1 3h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Zachary Svajda 25¢ $1 3h
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Svajda BUY Paul 69¢ $1 3h
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Svajda BUY Paul 69¢ $1 3h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $1 3h
Botic van de Zandschulp vs. Harry Wendelken: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 30¢ $1 4h
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 78¢ $1 4h
Estevez vs. Linde: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 4h
Set 1 Winner: Estevez vs Linde BUY Estevez 82¢ $1 4h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Samuel Linde BUY Juan Estevez 86¢ $1 4h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Zachary Svajda 29¢ $1 4h
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 46¢ $1 4h
Nikoloz Basilashvili vs. Daniel Altmaier: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 55¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.37 · official $30.37 (match) · 387 history records