Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:32:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88b4…2232 crypto 1246 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 111d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,035 (-6%) realized −$1,024 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%483W / 762L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day28.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days−$4
30 days−$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,899
other 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -10.9% -19.3% 68% 32% -8.0%
≤30d 238 -18.0% -25.8% 38% 29% -17.3%
≤90d 1123 -19.0% -26.7% 40% 34% -18.4%
all 1245 -20.1% -27.7% 39% 33% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.7% 33% -18.8%
10% ← realistic here -34.6% 26% -26.5%
15% -40.9% 21% -33.6%
20% -46.7% 16% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$1,024
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses483 / 762
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1245 / 1246
History coverage112d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 86¢ 60¢ $35 $24 −$11 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 285 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 27 $70 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 27 $35 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 27 $71 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$13 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$9 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 27 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 27 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 27 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 27 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 27 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 27 $3 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 27 $8 −$3 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $8 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 27 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$2 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $35 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $35 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $38 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $35 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $40 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $35 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $35 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $35 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $37 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $36 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $27 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $38 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $31 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.22 · official $24.62 (match) · 3500 history records