Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:28:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
88 0x88b7…7eca crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-49%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 71d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% −$33
other 30% −$26
world 27% −$9
crypto 6% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-62.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 6 -59.0% -62.9% 17% 17% -95.5%
all 6 -59.0% -62.9% 17% 17% -95.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.9% 17% -95.5%
10% -66.5% 17% -95.9%
15% -69.7% 17% -96.3%
20% -72.7% 17% -96.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -95% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -95% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$14 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage71d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 07 $2 −$2 -94%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 07 $23 −$9 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 07 $1 +$1 +133%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $26 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $12 23h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 70d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 70d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 64¢ $14 70d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 58¢ $13 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $2 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records