Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:31:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
88 0x88ba…b99a sports 515 markets active 19h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,752 (-3%) realized −$1,749 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%243W / 271L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$632est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$159
7 days−$908
14 days−$653
30 days+$270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$809
other 13% −$1,236
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -23.9% -31.1% 40% 40% -31.8%
≤30d 132 +4.4% -5.6% 53% 53% -8.3%
≤90d 404 -7.0% -15.8% 47% 47% -12.8%
all 514 -7.4% -16.3% 47% 47% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 47% -12.8%
10% -24.3% 47% -21.1%
15% -31.6% 47% -28.8%
20% -38.3% 45% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$104 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$1,749
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses243 / 271
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$632
Open positions1
Markets (closed)514 / 515
History coverage100d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 514 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 13¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 266 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 17 $39 +$21 +54%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $148 −$146 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $89 +$60 +67%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $39 +$50 +128%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $15 −$14 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $47 −$46 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $37 −$36 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $23 +$13 +57%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $40 −$39 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $23 +$16 +68%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $66 −$65 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $23 +$42 +180%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $289 −$285 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $186 +$103 +55%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $88 −$87 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $111 −$108 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $325 +$262 +81%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $177 +$149 +84%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 13 $38 −$37 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $31 −$31 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $69 −$68 -99%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 12 $106 −$105 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $69 +$38 +55%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $69 −$68 -98%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5) Jun 12 $251 −$248 -99%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $160 +$91 +57%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $98 +$62 +63%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 11 $109 −$11 -10%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $137 +$41 +30%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-7.5) Jun 11 $340 −$335 -99%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $115 +$225 +196%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $70 −$68 -98%
Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 10 $582 −$572 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $195 +$389 +200%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $396 −$390 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $225 +$171 +76%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $102 +$124 +121%
Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+1.5) Jun 09 $315 −$310 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $255 −$250 -98%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $102 +$140 +137%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $254 +$277 +109%
Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+1.5) Jun 08 $468 +$544 +116%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 08 $101 −$100 -99%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $101 +$75 +74%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $351 −$346 -98%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $237 +$299 +126%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $61 18h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida SELL Joaquin Aguilar 99¢ $61 18h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Joaquin Aguilar 64¢ $39 19h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 50¢ $148 20h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $148 20h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $89 23h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL GenOne 100¢ $89 23h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 43¢ $39 23h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming $15 29h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $47 43h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 10¢ $2 43h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 59¢ $34 44h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 63¢ $23 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $40 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 99¢ $39 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 58¢ $23 2d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 62¢ $66 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $66 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 35¢ $23 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 35¢ $24 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $289 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $289 3d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 55¢ $88 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $111 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $186 3d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 51¢ $203 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $587 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $325 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 99¢ $325 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 53¢ $177 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.70 · official $6.70 (match) · 804 history records