Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
88 0x88bb…b4cf sports 100 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$25 (+5%) realized +$27 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate52%34W / 32L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days+$16
14 days+$49
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$2
world 23% +$28
other 17% −$2
crypto 4% $0
politics 3% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +2.2% -7.5% 46% 40% -1.4%
≤30d 66 +0.6% -9.0% 52% 39% -2.7%
≤90d 66 +0.6% -9.0% 52% 39% -2.7%
all 66 +0.6% -9.0% 52% 39% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 39% -2.7%
10% -17.7% 33% -12.0%
15% -25.6% 32% -20.5%
20% -32.9% 30% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$163
Realized+$27
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses34 / 32
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions34
Markets (closed)66 / 100
History coverage14d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $7 +$2 (+38%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 92¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 91¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 93¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 70¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 79¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 90¢ 89¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -12%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $5 +$3 +62%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $5 +$4 +79%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $5 +$5 +105%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $5 +$6 +119%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -37%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 −$3 -62%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +230%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 +$9 +180%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $5 +$6 +123%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $5 +$7 +134%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $5 +$6 +114%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +14%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 09 $5 $0 +2%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $5 +$4 +86%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $5 $0 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $5 $0 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $5 +$4 +84%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $5 $0 +5%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $5 +$1 +24%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $5 +$2 +43%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $5 +$7 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $5 1m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 17m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $5 35h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 35h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Clara Tauson 45¢ $5 36h
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 87¢ $5 38h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 40h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 26¢ $5 41h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $5 42h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 46¢ $5 43h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 43h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 43h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 43h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 65¢ $5 46h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 46h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 62¢ $5 46h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 44¢ $5 46h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 54¢ $5 46h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 55¢ $5 46h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 47h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 46¢ $5 47h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 47h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $5 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 2d
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 45¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.93 · official $162.35 (match) · 172 history records