Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88bb…fcb1 other 239 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$67 (-0%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 227L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$13
14 days−$22
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$34
sports 22% −$16
culture 7% −$7
economics 6% −$6
politics 6% −$4
crypto 6% −$5
world 4% −$4
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 184 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 239 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 227
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)239 / 239
History coverage127d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 239 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $685 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $185 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $389 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $182 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $107 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $362 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $385 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $287 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $227 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $69 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $417 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $214 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $194 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $241 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $278 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $127 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $175 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $436 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $293 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $408 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $240 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $211 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $444 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $139 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $205 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $148 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $58 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $252 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 06 $514 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $381 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $432 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $101 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $773 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $209 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $797 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $582 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $363 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 30 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $133 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $270 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $52 50m
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $52 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $52 6h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 7h
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $33 10h
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $33 11h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 13h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 14h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 16h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 17h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $53 18h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 20h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $53 22h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 23h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $53 25h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $53 27h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 31h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 32h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 34h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 35h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 37h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 39h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 43h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 45h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1265 history records