Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:28:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

88 0x88c2…58d2 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$282 (+86%) realized +$289 · open −$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +90% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +72% what you keep after slip

Net edge+72%after slip

Net WR83%break-even

Win rate83%5W / 1L

Drawdown4%max

Avg bet$47per market

Trades / day1.2pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit29%portable

Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +83%

net ROI/market (all)+72.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+90.1%	+72.0%	83%	83%	+88.0%
≤30d	6	+90.1%	+72.0%	83%	83%	+88.0%
≤90d	6	+90.1%	+72.0%	83%	83%	+88.0%
all	6	+90.1%	+72.0%	83%	83%	+88.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+72.0%	83%	+88.0%
10%	+55.6%	83%	+70.0%
15%	+40.5%	83%	+53.6%
20%	+26.8%	83%	+38.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 43% · top 2 61% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +108% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +90% · $-wt +108% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$58 vs −$10 · ×5.76 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×28.79 per $1 lost it wins $28.79

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$63

Realized+$289

Unrealized−$7

Win rate (resolved)83%

Wins / losses5 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage6d

Avg bet$47

Trades / day1.2

Drawdown4%

Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	64¢	57¢	$70	$63	−$7 (-10%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$81	+$124	+152%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$51	+$42	+83%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$51	+$49	+97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$55	+$51	+93%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 16	$10	+$22	+216%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$71	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	39¢	$81	24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	54¢	$51	3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	BUY Yes	31¢	$10	4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	50¢	$51	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	51¢	$55	5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	31¢	$10	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.89 · official $62.89 (match) · 12 history records