Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:40:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

88
0x88c4…129a
world · 220 markets active 4h ago
0.0score
+$657,107 +20%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$329,770 · open +$143,132
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$882,542
Realized+$329,770
Unrealized+$143,132
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses159 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$5,436
Open positions19
Markets (closed)203 / 220
History coverage91d
Avg bet$14,587
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 19 History 203 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35,512
7 days−$91,835
14 days−$82,097
30 days−$211,106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 72¢ 86¢ $662,356 $784,647 +$122,290 (+18%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 56¢ 99¢ $14,443 $25,370 +$10,927 (+76%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 68¢ 94¢ $10,737 $14,764 +$4,026 (+37%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 83¢ 97¢ $9,018 $10,584 +$1,566 (+17%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 71¢ 77¢ $9,614 $10,402 +$788 (+8%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 76¢ 81¢ $6,478 $6,981 +$503 (+8%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 80¢ 84¢ $6,484 $6,852 +$369 (+6%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 83¢ 90¢ $4,638 $5,028 +$390 (+8%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? No 84¢ 99¢ $3,561 $4,188 +$627 (+18%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? No 75¢ 97¢ $2,909 $3,797 +$888 (+31%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 76¢ 94¢ $2,400 $2,950 +$550 (+23%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 85¢ 88¢ $1,722 $1,770 +$48 (+3%)
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? No 72¢ 68¢ $1,782 $1,688 −$94 (-5%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 96¢ $1,502 $1,664 +$162 (+11%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? No 77¢ 82¢ $606 $653 +$47 (+8%)
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? Yes 84¢ 90¢ $502 $535 +$33 (+7%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? No 68¢ 73¢ $329 $352 +$23 (+7%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 84¢ $256 $245 −$11 (-4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? No 89¢ 88¢ $73 $72 −$0 (-1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? No 79¢ 0¢ $44,329 $0 −$44,329 (-100%)
Will San Diego FC win on 2026-05-02? Yes 85¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Will Mohsen Araki be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? No 3¢ 0¢ $26,793 $0 −$26,793 (-100%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? Yes 69¢ 0¢ $8,222 $0 −$8,222 (-100%)
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Over 92¢ 0¢ $4,261 $0 −$4,261 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mohsen Araki be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 14 $26,793 −$36,438 -136%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $106 +$22 +20%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 13 $1,940 +$314 +16%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 13 $1,307 +$153 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $78 +$13 +16%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $3,013 +$435 +14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $3,294 +$440 +13%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10,697 −$8,628 -81%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 09 $4,954 +$99 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $22,292 −$21,401 -96%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $17,553 −$17,338 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $550 −$417 -76%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $10,449 −$9,079 -87%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 04 $1,997 +$192 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 01 $12,263 +$1,004 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 01 $183 −$183 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $33,427 +$8,724 +26%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 26 $4,989 −$4,937 -99%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 26 $10,065 −$10,012 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 26 $1,552 −$1,546 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 25 $10,381 −$10,381 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $592 +$160 +27%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31? May 25 $1,888 −$1,888 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 25 $8,222 −$8,222 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 25 $9,469 −$9,469 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? May 25 $13,325 +$2,546 +19%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $14,911 −$14,911 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $22,893 +$5,243 +23%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $6,286 +$975 +16%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 24 $8,950 −$8,950 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $10,196 +$769 +8%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $19,851 +$1,485 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $9,181 −$9,130 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $18,281 −$17,638 -96%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 22 $340 −$333 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $27,816 +$2,114 +8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 21 $22,587 +$534 +2%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? May 21 $500 +$21 +4%
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 20 $5,432 +$214 +4%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-09? May 20 $3,004 +$150 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $1,335 +$40 +3%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 18 $54,877 −$48,829 -89%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $23,282 +$1,292 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $16,882 +$1,695 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 11 $1,253 −$92 -7%
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals May 11 $18,144 −$9,393 -52%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants May 10 $9,177 −$9,144 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres May 10 $7,252 +$1,925 +26%
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox May 10 $5,645 +$282 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 50% +$349,521
sports 33% +$196,345
finance 12% +$7,114
other 5% −$45,779
politics 0% +$2,195
culture 0% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 72¢ $127 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL No 99¢ $128 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY No 89¢ $29 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $28 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY No 89¢ $44 7h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 76¢ $210 16h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $2,000 16h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? SELL No 99¢ $2,254 16h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY No 87¢ $97 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $31 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 73¢ $299 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? SELL No 99¢ $427 17h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $749 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? SELL No 99¢ $750 17h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $1,912 17h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? BUY No 86¢ $17 17h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? BUY No 85¢ $222 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 72¢ $648 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 71¢ $498 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 79¢ $206 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $1,000 17h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $962 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $80 41h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $17 41h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $184 41h
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? SELL No 99¢ $283 41h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $26 42h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY No 76¢ $100 42h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $22 42h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $42 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -40.2% -45.9% 50% 43% -82.6%
≤30d 45 -39.1% -44.9% 53% 24% -47.3%
≤90d 203 +10.5% -0.0% 78% 27% +5.0%
all 203 +10.5% -0.0% 78% 27% +5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.0% 27% +5.0%
10% -9.6% 16% -5.1%
15% ← realistic here -18.3% 11% -14.2%
20% -26.3% 8% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $882,541.91 · official $882,542.76 (match) · 3500 history records