Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:06:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
88 0x88c5…2909 sports 220 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,218 (+13%) realized +$4,222 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%111W / 107L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$456est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$377now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$148
7 days+$1,181
14 days+$660
30 days+$2,272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$4,155
other 10% −$55
world 1% −$231
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +31.5% +19.0% 68% 68% +25.2%
≤30d 66 +16.4% +5.3% 52% 52% +11.1%
≤90d 218 +6.9% -3.3% 51% 51% +1.4%
all 218 +6.9% -3.3% 51% 51% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 51% +1.4%
10% -12.6% 51% -8.3%
15% -21.0% 51% -17.2%
20% -28.7% 50% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$166 vs −$136 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$377
Realized+$4,222
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses111 / 107
Est. fees paid−$456
Open positions2
Markets (closed)218 / 220
History coverage66d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 218 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $231 $228 −$2 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $151 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $234 −$231 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$85 +83%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $145 +$93 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $234 +$201 +86%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $234 +$186 +79%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $234 −$231 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $95 +$143 +152%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $232 +$207 +89%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $153 −$151 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $226 +$194 +86%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $132 +$150 +114%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $102 −$101 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $92 +$82 +89%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $318 +$262 +82%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $102 +$98 +97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $147 +$160 +109%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $203 +$137 +67%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $404 −$399 -99%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $94 −$92 -99%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $90 −$1 -1%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $74 −$73 -98%
Will Greece vs. Italy end in a draw? Jun 07 $132 −$129 -98%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $189 −$186 -99%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $102 −$101 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 06 $228 −$224 -99%
Australia vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $137 +$108 +79%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $206 +$170 +82%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $109 +$86 +79%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 06 $152 −$150 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $130 +$88 +67%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 05 $91 +$78 +86%
Will Sweden vs. Greece end in a draw? Jun 04 $127 +$334 +262%
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $152 +$127 +83%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $57 −$56 -99%
Shnaider vs. Chwalinska: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 04 $102 −$100 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $90 +$78 +86%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 03 $181 −$178 -98%
Will Poland vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 03 $291 +$699 +240%
Will Albania vs. Israel end in a draw? Jun 03 $132 −$129 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 02 $82 −$81 -98%
Will Georgia vs. Romania end in a draw? Jun 02 $146 +$364 +249%
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 02 $57 −$56 -98%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $196 +$155 +79%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 30 $204 −$201 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $224 +$506 +226%
Will Nice vs. Saint-Etienne end in a draw? May 29 $162 −$158 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 28 $154 −$151 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 May 28 $160 +$155 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $153 49m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $234 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $234 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $145 35h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $102 35h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $435 36h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $234 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $234 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $234 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $238 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $440 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $232 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $95 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $153 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $421 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $283 3d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $102 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $226 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $132 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $174 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $579 4d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $102 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $92 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $318 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $102 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $147 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $203 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $404 9d
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $94 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $377.48 · official $377.48 (match) · 450 history records