Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:07:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88c6…245b crypto 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$9 (+2%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%34W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$136
14 days−$49
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$14
sports 41% +$65
other 8% −$36
politics 3% −$14
world 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -32.0% -38.5% 35% 33% -48.0%
≤30d 66 -1.6% -11.0% 42% 41% -20.1%
≤90d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 43% 42% -14.0%
all 77 -1.4% -10.8% 44% 43% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 43% -10.1%
10% -19.3% 42% -18.7%
15% -27.1% 40% -26.6%
20% -34.3% 34% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses34 / 43
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 77
History coverage222d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$4 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +56%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +88%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +58%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$7 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +74%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 +$5 +105%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$9 +174%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$7 +134%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$11 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$8 -74%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$1 -11%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$6 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $7 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $9 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 26h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $6 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $8 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 163 history records