Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:18:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
88 0x88ca…3030 crypto 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 548d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$303 (+1%) realized +$303 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate96%26W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$1,102per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$255
world 12% +$45
other 0% +$2
weather 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +2.7% -7.1% 100% 0% -7.2%
≤90d 5 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 0% -8.4%
all 27 +7.2% -3.0% 96% 15% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 15% -8.6%
10% -12.3% 4% -17.4%
15% -20.8% 4% -25.4%
20% -28.5% 4% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$132 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.29 per $1 lost it wins $3.29
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

548d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$303
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses26 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage548d
Avg bet$1,102
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hotstuff launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $55 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $52 +$3 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 17 $51 +$2 +3%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 11 $3,531 +$41 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C or below on March 19? Apr 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C or below on March 5? Mar 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 49°F or below on March 2? Mar 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on February 25? Mar 01 $32 $0 +0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January? Feb 02 $31 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 04 $30 $0 +1%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 5? Dec 26 $29 +$2 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? Dec 03 $28 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Nov 24 $28 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $3600 in September? Oct 19 $27 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $110000 on May 16? May 17 $59 +$10 +16%
Will Solana dip to $140 in May? May 12 $191 −$132 -69%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? May 01 $168 +$23 +14%
Will Solana dip to $80 in April? Apr 28 $166 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $150 in April? Apr 23 $58 +$109 +186%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $80000 on April 4? Apr 05 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Mar 18 $5,183 +$55 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $4750 by February 28 2025? Feb 20 $49 +$1 +2%
Will someone else be inaugurated? Feb 03 $49 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000.00 by March 31? Jan 10 $10,591 +$113 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? Jan 06 $5,139 +$10 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in December? Jan 04 $5,077 +$56 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hotstuff launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 17d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $52 43d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 97¢ $51 78d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? SELL No 87¢ $1,307 79d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? SELL No 87¢ $100 79d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? SELL No 87¢ $22 79d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? SELL No 87¢ $1,740 79d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? SELL No 87¢ $100 79d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? SELL No 87¢ $200 79d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? SELL No 87¢ $2 79d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? SELL No 87¢ $30 79d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? SELL No 87¢ $9 79d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? SELL No 87¢ $63 79d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? BUY No 86¢ $3,531 79d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C or below on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $32 103d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C or below on March 5? BUY No 100¢ $32 116d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 49°F or below on March 2? BUY No 100¢ $32 119d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on February 25? BUY No 100¢ $32 124d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 147d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January? BUY No 97¢ $2 175d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January? BUY No 97¢ $28 175d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $30 185d
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 5? BUY No 94¢ $29 208d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $28 217d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? BUY No 99¢ $28 252d
Will Ethereum dip to $3600 in September? BUY No 98¢ $27 283d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $110000 on May 16? BUY No 86¢ $59 413d
Will Solana dip to $140 in May? SELL Yes 24¢ $59 413d
Will Solana dip to $140 in May? BUY Yes 78¢ $191 423d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.79 · official $54.79 (match) · 173 history records