Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
88 0x88cb…d3a2 sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$625 (-7%) realized −$625 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$497per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$116est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$209
7 days−$356
14 days−$893
30 days−$893
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$834
other 37% +$56
world 4% −$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-32.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -16.1% -24.1% 46% 38% -14.6%
≤30d 17 -25.5% -32.6% 41% 35% -19.1%
≤90d 17 -25.5% -32.6% 41% 35% -19.1%
all 17 -25.5% -32.6% 41% 35% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.6% 35% -19.1%
10% -39.0% 18% -26.8%
15% -44.9% 18% -33.9%
20% -50.3% 6% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$711) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -33% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$188 vs −$221 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$625
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$116
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage14d
Avg bet$497
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $303 −$90 -30%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$120 +40%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $304 −$115 -38%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$124 -62%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $304 +$284 +93%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 15 $514 −$514 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $506 −$506 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $505 +$68 +14%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,010 +$103 +10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $506 −$21 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $711 +$337 +47%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,016 +$203 +20%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,016 +$203 +20%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $220 −$220 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $201 −$201 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $718 −$318 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Learner Tien 50¢ $92 33m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Learner Tien 45¢ $121 35m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 65¢ $303 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 35¢ $189 38h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $67 40h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 41h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $304 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $303 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $304 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 20¢ $512 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $506 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 74¢ $574 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 73¢ $1,114 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 33¢ $2 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $485 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $506 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $1,010 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 71¢ $1,048 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $711 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 58¢ $1,218 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $1,016 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 58¢ $1,218 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $1,016 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 67¢ $220 12d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 79¢ $201 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 58¢ $191 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 76¢ $209 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records