Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:12:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
88 0x88cf…924d other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$208 (-13%) realized +$152 · open −$360
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$342now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$26
14 days−$167
30 days+$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$23
sports 26% +$119
crypto 17% −$212
finance 6% −$99
tech 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -13.4% -21.6% 50% 50% -21.1%
≤30d 14 +9.2% -1.2% 43% 43% +4.4%
≤90d 14 +9.2% -1.2% 43% 43% +4.4%
all 14 +9.2% -1.2% 43% 43% +4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 43% +4.4%
10% -10.7% 43% -5.6%
15% -19.3% 43% -14.7%
20% -27.2% 43% -23.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$54 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$342
Realized+$152
Unrealized−$360
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions15
Markets (closed)14 / 29
History coverage31d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 48¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $101 $75 −$26 (-26%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 50¢ $50 $69 +$19 (+38%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 51¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 58¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 64¢ 63¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 15¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-29%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Over 35¢ 36¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 39¢ 36¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 10¢ $25 $4 −$21 (-84%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Yes 30¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Yes 31¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in June? Yes 10¢ $11 $1 −$10 (-93%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 53¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Yes 18¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $11 +$24 +216%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $76 −$75 -98%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 10 $52 +$176 +342%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? Jun 09 $94 +$147 +156%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $32 +$18 +56%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $103 −$100 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $152 +$131 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 39¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $10 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $25 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $101 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $30 9d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $11 9d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 54¢ $30 9d
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 9d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $10 11d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $5 11d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 11d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 44¢ $76 11d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 13d
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 13d
Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 13d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $27 14d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? SELL Yes 86¢ $228 14d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? SELL Yes 100¢ $241 15d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 18¢ $20 18d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 18¢ $31 19d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 6? SELL Down 41¢ $49 19d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 6? BUY Down 24¢ $32 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY Yes 30¢ $105 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY Yes 53¢ $103 23d
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 25d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $341.69 · official $341.70 (match) · 69 history records