Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:55:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88cf…2b30 world 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate44%12W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$2
other 34% +$1
sports 8% +$1
politics 6% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +5.0% -5.0% 33% 17% -7.7%
≤30d 15 +2.7% -7.1% 40% 13% -8.9%
≤90d 15 +2.7% -7.1% 40% 13% -8.9%
all 27 -1.6% -11.0% 44% 11% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 11% -8.9%
10% -19.5% 4% -17.6%
15% -27.3% 4% -25.6%
20% -34.4% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage448d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 93¢ 94¢ $33 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $11 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $88 +$1 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $9 +$3 +36%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $9 −$1 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $27 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $27 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $10 +$2 +20%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $25 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $28 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $28 −$4 -12%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $9 $0 -5%
Will Microsoft buy TikTok? Jun 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $24 $0 +0%
Will someone else win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian May 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Apr 27 $3 +$1 +16%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $27 +$1 +2%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? Apr 05 $0 $0 +0%
Will 'Minecraft' gross between 110m and 120m on opening weekend? Apr 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump create 'gold card' citizenship before April? Apr 05 $27 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $33 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 91¢ $12 5h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 91¢ $22 5h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $34 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $34 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $34 23h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $11 30h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 32h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $34 39h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $34 39h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 15¢ $0 46h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 15¢ $5 46h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 15¢ $6 46h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $2 47h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $7 47h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $28 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $18 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $9 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $28 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $27 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $13 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $14 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $27 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.66 · official $33.66 (match) · 93 history records