Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:31:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
88 0x88cf…a0af sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$298 (-10%) realized −$298 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%11W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$61
14 days−$383
30 days−$506
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$559
other 5% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -23.2% -30.5% 31% 31% -14.4%
≤30d 27 -14.4% -22.5% 41% 37% -19.5%
≤90d 27 -14.4% -22.5% 41% 37% -19.5%
all 27 -14.4% -22.5% 41% 37% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 37% -19.5%
10% -29.9% 26% -27.2%
15% -36.7% 4% -34.2%
20% -42.9% 4% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$48 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$298
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses11 / 16
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage23d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $52 +$7 +14%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $48 −$12 -24%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $32 +$7 +22%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $133 +$39 +29%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $228 −$76 -33%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $5 −$4 -84%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $158 +$52 +33%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $9 −$8 -84%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $3 −$1 -30%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $151 −$6 -4%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $117 −$3 -2%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $2 −$4 -195%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $140 −$52 -37%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $66 −$6 -9%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $98 +$15 +15%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $268 −$39 -15%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $162 +$44 +27%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $55 +$18 +32%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $479 −$384 -80%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $42 +$59 +141%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $253 −$29 -11%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 +8%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $116 −$112 -97%
Atlético Nacional vs. CDPJuniorFC: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $122 −$28 -23%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $1 $0 +23%
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $102 −$5 -5%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Jun 03 $121 +$22 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 36¢ $2 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 53¢ $29 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 53¢ $29 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $2 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $50 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 31¢ $3 4h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 30¢ $3 4h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 30¢ $3 4h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 30¢ $3 4h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 30¢ $3 4h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 32¢ $3 4h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 31¢ $3 4h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 31¢ $3 4h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 31¢ $3 4h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 31¢ $3 4h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 31¢ $3 4h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 31¢ $3 4h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $48 4h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 86¢ $6 25h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 79¢ $33 25h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $32 25h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $172 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 76¢ $133 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 27¢ $18 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 30¢ $22 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 30¢ $22 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 34¢ $25 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 30¢ $22 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 30¢ $22 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 31¢ $22 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records