Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:47:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
88 0x88d1…bfd0 other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$321 (-2%) realized −$569 · open +$248
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate31%10W / 22L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$361per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$98est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$1,769now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,725
7 days+$1,232
14 days−$277
30 days−$558
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$1,121
sports 25% +$889
crypto 1% −$80
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +2.6% -7.2% 33% 33% +33.1%
≤30d 32 -6.0% -15.0% 31% 28% -11.7%
≤90d 32 -6.0% -15.0% 31% 28% -11.7%
all 32 -6.0% -15.0% 31% 28% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 28% -11.7%
10% -23.1% 25% -20.1%
15% -30.5% 25% -27.8%
20% -37.3% 25% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -15% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$429 vs −$220 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$1,769
Realized−$569
Unrealized+$248
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses10 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions5
Markets (closed)32 / 41
History coverage17d
Avg bet$361
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $971 $1,036 +$66 (+7%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 41¢ 100¢ $300 $731 +$431 (+144%)
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-98%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $509 +$773 +152%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Jun 21 $307 −$306 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $205 −$88 -43%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $306 +$631 +206%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $154 −$80 -52%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $307 +$890 +290%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $204 −$108 -53%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 20 $204 +$262 +129%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $203 +$222 +109%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,000 −$241 -24%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $382 −$374 -98%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $49 +$2 +3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,568 −$1,236 -79%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,000 +$568 +57%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $103 −$21 -21%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $103 −$2 -2%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $92 +$254 +276%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $103 −$26 -25%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 14 $312 −$12 -4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$11 -10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $152 +$160 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $75 −$74 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1,307 −$1,300 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 −$95 -94%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $167 −$140 -84%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2,662 +$524 +20%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $559 −$281 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 41¢ $305 2h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgiu BUY 5¢ $103 10h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 39¢ $509 16h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 16h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) SELL Ecuador 0¢ $1 16h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 9¢ $117 16h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Ecuador 24¢ $307 18h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $205 18h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 23h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? SELL Yes 6¢ $74 24h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $154 26h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 32¢ $306 26h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Will Germany BUY 7¢ $154 33h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 37h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 12¢ $85 37h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 37h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 16¢ $12 37h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 37h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $204 40h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 40h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 82¢ $466 45h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $204 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 10¢ $103 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 34¢ $729 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end BUY 9¢ $103 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,769.08 · official $1,869.08 · 93 history records