Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:45:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88d3…c2aa crypto 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (149 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$229 (+16%) realized +$228 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate37%26W / 45L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day149.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$247now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% +$63
other 18% +$95
sports 10% +$37
world 2% −$23
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (149 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -9.0% -17.6% 37% 32% +4.0%
≤30d 71 -9.0% -17.6% 37% 32% +4.0%
≤90d 71 -9.0% -17.6% 37% 32% +4.0%
all 71 -9.0% -17.6% 37% 32% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover149.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 32% +4.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 30% -5.9%
15% -32.7% 28% -15.0%
20% -39.3% 25% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$11 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$247
Realized+$228
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses26 / 45
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions26
Markets (closed)71 / 97
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day149.1
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 100¢ $5 $21 +$16 (+316%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Algeria concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+16%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 54¢ 24¢ $15 $7 −$8 (-55%)
Will Algeria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Senegal to score first vs. France? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Under 14¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $35 +$35 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $55 +$24 +44%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$6 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $60 +$128 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$9 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $47 −$20 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$31 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$24 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$7 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -96%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$9 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$7 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$118 +655%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $7 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $7 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 BUY Under 14¢ $5 1h
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $15 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $14 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 19¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246.93 · official $246.94 (match) · 233 history records