Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:20:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
88 0x88d4…2e6b sports 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$242 (+20%) realized +$231 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%18W / 10L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$181
14 days+$159
30 days+$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$213
other 5% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +50.9% +36.5% 75% 75% +27.0%
≤30d 28 +30.4% +18.0% 64% 64% +8.1%
≤90d 28 +30.4% +18.0% 64% 64% +8.1%
all 28 +30.4% +18.0% 64% 64% +8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.0% 64% +8.1%
10% +6.7% 61% -2.2%
15% -3.6% 57% -11.7%
20% -13.1% 50% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +40% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$28 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized+$231
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses18 / 10
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions6
Markets (closed)28 / 34
History coverage20d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 43¢ 72¢ $20 $34 +$14 (+69%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Under 60¢ 60¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 46¢ 46¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 50¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 +$33 +129%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 +$16 +62%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $25 +$39 +152%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $25 +$16 +65%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $76 +$72 +95%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 14 $25 +$14 +55%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $61 +$36 +60%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $70 +$8 +12%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$20 +197%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 11 $50 −$32 -63%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $30 −$16 -52%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $40 −$30 -74%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 09 $30 +$17 +55%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 09 $41 −$40 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $31 +$55 +180%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 06 $30 +$19 +62%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 06 $52 −$51 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 06 $30 +$13 +42%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 201.5 Jun 04 $5 +$3 +50%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 203.5 Jun 04 $20 +$5 +24%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 04 $20 +$20 +97%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 Jun 04 $80 −$26 -32%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $20 −$5 -27%
Knicks vs. Spurs May 31 $45 −$45 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $31 +$40 +132%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $81 −$6 -7%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $101 +$65 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $25 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $25 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $25 5h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 56¢ $25 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 5h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 24h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $25 29h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 61¢ $25 29h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $25 29h
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY Yes 60¢ $25 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 43¢ $20 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 BUY Under 64¢ $25 5d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) BUY Knicks 62¢ $61 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 33¢ $10 6d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) SELL Knicks 15¢ $9 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 SELL Under 30¢ $14 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 BUY Under 61¢ $30 7d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) SELL Knicks 67¢ $10 7d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 68¢ $50 7d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY No 80¢ $30 7d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? SELL Yes 24¢ $12 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 33¢ $10 8d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 8d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Knicks 64¢ $30 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 60¢ $30 8d
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? BUY No 89¢ $70 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 57¢ $10 11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $40 11d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) SELL Knicks 94¢ $43 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 61¢ $30 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.43 · official $141.44 (match) · 66 history records