Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:37:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88d5…6273 other 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 446d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%21W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$7
other 19% +$2
tech 7% $0
crypto 6% $0
politics 5% +$1
economics 5% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.7% -12.0% 44% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 12 -2.5% -11.8% 33% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 12 -2.5% -11.8% 33% 0% -11.0%
all 58 -1.5% -10.9% 36% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 2% -10.1%
10% -19.4% 2% -18.7%
15% -27.2% 2% -26.5%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

446d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses21 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage446d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $38 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $38 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $42 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $44 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $36 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $24 −$7 -28%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $11 $0 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $40 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $7 +$3 +43%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Nov 14 $12 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 4–11? Jul 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 1% and 0%? Jul 07 $5 $0 -1%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11? Jul 07 $6 $0 +1%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 06 $8 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 05 $7 $0 -0%
Will Remco Evenepoel win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 04 $5 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4? Jul 04 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jul 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 23–30? May 31 $1 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 15 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $37 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $37 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $17 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $15 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $38 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $17 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $17 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $3 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $7 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $8 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $41 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $41 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 5¢ $4 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $25 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $25 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $30 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $7 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $36 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 163 history records