Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:48:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
88 0x88d9…2dd5 other 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 71d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$745 (-43%) realized −$780 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$334now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 71d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$358
tech 20% −$337
world 3% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-68.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -61.2% -64.9% 22% 11% -58.1%
≤30d 9 -61.2% -64.9% 22% 11% -58.1%
≤90d 10 -65.1% -68.4% 20% 10% -59.6%
all 10 -65.1% -68.4% 20% 10% -59.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -68.4% 10% -59.6%
10% -71.4% 10% -63.5%
15% -74.2% 10% -67.0%
20% -76.7% 0% -70.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$109 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$334
Realized−$780
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage71d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 43¢ 48¢ $299 $334 +$35 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 17 $112 +$4 +3%
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? Jun 17 $133 −$133 -100%
GPT-5.6 released by May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $91 −$91 -100%
GPT-5.6 released by May 15, 2026? Jun 17 $113 −$113 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 17 $166 −$166 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 17 $212 +$90 +42%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 17 $413 −$228 -55%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 17 $44 −$18 -41%
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? May 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 40¢ $13 24m
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa SELL Yes 27¢ $13 29m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 39¢ $103 30m
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa SELL Yes 39¢ $103 31m
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY Yes 44¢ $7 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 45¢ $190 1h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY Yes 34¢ $105 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 69¢ $20 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 69¢ $100 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 69¢ $182 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 48¢ $22 12h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 47¢ $190 12h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 27¢ $185 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? SELL Yes 24¢ $26 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY Yes 39¢ $44 43h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 62¢ $13 43h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $47 43h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? BUY Yes 13¢ $27 43h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 61¢ $64 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $22 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 56¢ $337 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $141 3d
GPT-5.6 released by May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $39 29d
GPT-5.6 released by May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $52 29d
GPT-5.6 released by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 37d
GPT-5.6 released by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 37d
GPT-5.6 released by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $80 37d
GPT-5.6 released by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $30 37d
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $333.77 · official $333.77 (match) · 60 history records