Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:15:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
88 0x88da…15c6 other 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$110 (-1%) realized −$679 · open +$569
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate53%25W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$6,546now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$396
7 days−$488
14 days−$308
30 days−$1,153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$216
world 31% +$234
sports 4% −$288
crypto 4% −$67
politics 3% −$43
culture 2% −$25
tech 1% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -32.4% -38.8% 42% 25% -49.2%
≤30d 41 -27.8% -34.7% 54% 24% -29.0%
≤90d 47 -27.5% -34.4% 53% 28% -25.8%
all 47 -27.5% -34.4% 53% 28% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.4% 28% -25.8%
10% -40.7% 21% -32.9%
15% -46.4% 11% -39.4%
20% -51.7% 2% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$78 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$6,546
Realized−$679
Unrealized+$569
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses25 / 22
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions35
Markets (closed)47 / 82
History coverage56d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 69¢ 86¢ $1,374 $1,727 +$353 (+26%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $474 $705 +$231 (+49%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $718 $611 −$107 (-15%)
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? No 62¢ 89¢ $370 $535 +$165 (+45%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $348 $394 +$45 (+13%)
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30? No 61¢ 99¢ $199 $324 +$125 (+63%)
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? No 68¢ 92¢ $149 $200 +$50 (+34%)
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $200 $193 −$7 (-4%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 66¢ 60¢ $200 $182 −$18 (-9%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? No 77¢ 100¢ $125 $162 +$37 (+30%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $130 $149 +$19 (+15%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $151 $142 −$9 (-6%)
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $141 $122 −$19 (-14%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $114 $115 +$1 (+1%)
Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $76 $106 +$30 (+40%)
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? No 75¢ 76¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? No 88¢ 90¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $100 $74 −$26 (-26%)
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $65 $69 +$4 (+6%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 80¢ 86¢ $56 $60 +$4 (+7%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $70 $58 −$12 (-17%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 25¢ 7¢ $200 $56 −$144 (-72%)
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 96¢ 98¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? No 84¢ 85¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $48 $45 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $128 −$93 -72%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $227 +$2 +1%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $62 −$21 -35%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $26 −$2 -8%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 18 $306 −$306 -100%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $21 −$2 -11%
Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $21 +$2 +11%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $68 −$68 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 +$24 +23%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $400 −$4 -1%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 13 $8 −$5 -60%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $61 +$20 +33%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $41 −$21 -51%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $248 +$99 +40%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $72 +$11 +15%
Will Marta Kostyuk be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 12 $51 +$1 +3%
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 12 $45 +$3 +7%
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? Jun 12 $311 +$20 +6%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $51 +$2 +5%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $411 +$10 +2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $447 +$38 +8%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $256 +$3 +1%
Will Victoria Mboko be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $40 +$12 +30%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? Jun 01 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Russia capture Myropillia by May 31? Jun 01 $86 +$15 +18%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31? Jun 01 $111 +$39 +35%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $143 −$143 -100%
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 31? Jun 01 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 01 $106 −$106 -100%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? Jun 01 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $102 +$11 +10%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? May 30 $225 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $289 −$289 -100%
Will AC Nagano Parceiro win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22? May 23 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China? May 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Ventforet Kōfu win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $203 +$87 +43%
Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $241 +$110 +46%
Will FC Ryūkyū vs. Kagoshima United FC end in a draw? May 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-02? May 10 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31? May 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Will 8–9 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30? May 01 $199 +$98 +49%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $30 +$16 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 77¢ $126 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $31 6h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $128 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $101 27h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $229 28h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $40 36h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $62 37h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $24 39h
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $18 39h
Will New England Revolution win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 39h
Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $23 40h
Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $28 40h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 70¢ $306 4d
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $100 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $504 4d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $11 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 99¢ $125 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $101 6d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $68 6d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $48 6d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 66¢ $203 6d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 80¢ $57 6d
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $86 6d
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 2¢ $31 6d
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 56¢ $68 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $241 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $396 7d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $489 7d
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL No 3¢ $3 7d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 2¢ $20 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,546.09 · official $6,546.37 (match) · 220 history records