Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:02:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88da…3eab other 154 markets active 2h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,108 (-1%) realized −$1,108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate20%31W / 121L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,294per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$743now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$15
14 days−$23
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$40
politics 41% −$100
sports 10% −$972
world 2% −$3
culture 2% −$5
tech 2% −$4
economics 1% −$3
crypto 1% −$16
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 9% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 90 -11.3% -19.7% 6% 2% -10.6%
all 152 +1.9% -7.8% 20% 10% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 10% -10.0%
10% -16.6% 10% -18.7%
15% -24.7% 8% -26.5%
20% -32.1% 7% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,722) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$16 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$743
Realized−$1,108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses31 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)152 / 154
History coverage146d
Avg bet$1,294
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $402 $402 −$0 (-0%)
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $341 $340 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 24 $252 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $3,253 −$4 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 23 $459 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $1,749 −$2 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $1,658 −$3 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $2,519 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $313 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $1,043 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $2,123 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,835 −$4 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $1,457 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $1,247 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,608 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,706 −$4 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 08 $7,045 −$10 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $2,640 −$3 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,578 −$2 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $70 −$70 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $71 +$69 +97%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $1,620 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $2,488 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,929 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $355 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 02 $687 +$1 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 01 $1,722 −$3 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $878 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,082 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $3,679 −$3 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $2,318 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,017 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $1,378 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $70 +$68 +97%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $1,072 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,064 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $3,388 −$4 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1,424 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $1,090 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $1,472 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $1,649 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,645 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $3,675 −$4 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,643 −$3 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,616 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,644 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $1,514 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $341 1h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $252 1h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $252 5h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $345 23h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $345 24h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $458 24h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $459 26h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $383 26h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $384 29h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $433 2d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $434 2d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $315 5d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $315 5d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $365 5d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $365 5d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $340 5d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $340 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $312 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $313 6d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,042 7d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,043 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,107 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,109 8d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,170 10d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,172 10d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $403 12d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,521 13d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,523 13d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,455 14d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,457 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $742.74 · official $742.74 (match) · 521 history records