Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:49:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88e1…4f2a crypto 1542 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$70 (-1%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%1483W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day88.6pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$60
14 days−$60
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$24
other 12% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 489 -3.6% -12.8% 94% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 1540 -1.1% -10.5% 96% 1% -10.0%
≤90d 1540 -1.1% -10.5% 96% 1% -10.0%
all 1540 -1.1% -10.5% 96% 1% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover88.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 1% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 1% -18.6%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses1483 / 57
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1540 / 1542
History coverage22d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day88.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1540 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Down 99¢ 98¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 99¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 98¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.04 · official $15.29 (match) · 3500 history records