Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:21:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88e4…e2af crypto 842 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 90d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$236 (-1%) realized −$233 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate72%607W / 233L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day34.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$145
7 days−$88
14 days−$100
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 57% −$10
crypto 40% −$123
sports 3% +$37
other 1% +$30
world 0% −$25
finance 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +10.1% -0.4% 74% 11% -10.9%
≤30d 121 -11.2% -19.6% 53% 12% -9.4%
≤90d 837 -1.2% -10.6% 72% 32% -9.8%
all 840 -1.0% -10.5% 72% 32% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 32% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 15% -18.4%
15% -26.8% 11% -26.3%
20% -34.0% 8% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$233
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses607 / 233
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)840 / 842
History coverage90d ⚠
Avg bet$39
Trades / day34.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 840 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? No 77¢ 74¢ $61 $58 −$3 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? No 96¢ 95¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $544 +$25 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $294 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $142 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $43 −$11 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $301 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $413 −$236 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $324 +$67 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $196 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $346 +$18 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$4 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$11 +506%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 15 $450 +$37 +8%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $240 +$10 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $436 +$25 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 $0 +1%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 +$25 +226%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $552 +$12 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $246 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $347 +$24 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $430 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $93 −$83 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $250 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $114 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $381 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $200 −$144 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $319 +$33 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $261 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $817 +$24 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $53 −$12 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $566 +$25 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $148 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 8? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $128 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $208 +$37 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 7? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $185 −$31 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $64 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $287 +$12 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 3? Jun 05 $63 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 3? Jun 05 $99 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $10 1m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $10 1m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 76¢ $4 21m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 77¢ $2 23m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 77¢ $8 24m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 77¢ $8 24m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 77¢ $10 24m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 77¢ $16 24m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 77¢ $14 25m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? SELL No 98¢ $55 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? SELL No 97¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? SELL No 98¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? SELL No 98¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 91¢ $77 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $69 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $63 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $100 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $400 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 93¢ $28 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $30 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $30 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $18 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $33 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $28 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $18 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 93¢ $25 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $25 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 98¢ $73 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 98¢ $10 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.27 · official $77.27 (match) · 3500 history records