Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:05:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88e6…de6d sports 199 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%31W / 167L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$7
sports 24% −$3
politics 21% $0
crypto 13% +$1
economics 6% $0
world 3% −$2
tech 3% $0
culture 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.5% -10.0% 50% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 13 +0.1% -9.4% 31% 0% -9.5%
all 198 +0.0% -9.5% 16% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses31 / 167
Open positions1
Markets (closed)198 / 199
History coverage167d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 08 $44 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $45 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 18 $40 −$1 -3%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 26 $43 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $89 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $372 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $50 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 25 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 24 $91 +$1 +1%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $53 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 24 $249 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 23 $48 +$3 +5%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 23 $94 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 23 $195 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 22 $94 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 22 $55 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $307 −$2 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 22 $47 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 21 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 20 $191 $0 -0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 19 $91 $0 -0%
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $46 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Mar 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 18 $347 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 18 $93 +$1 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $86 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 17 $42 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 16 $47 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 16 $103 −$1 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 16 $96 −$1 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $186 $0 -0%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 15 $43 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Mar 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 13 $139 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 13 $90 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 12? Mar 12 $47 +$1 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 12 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 11 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 10 $40 $0 -1%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 10 $43 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 09 $49 −$1 -2%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 08 $152 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 08 $171 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 08 $98 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $41 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $44 12d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $44 13d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $44 26d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $45 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $38 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $40 34d
Netanyahu out by April 30? SELL No 96¢ $43 86d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 97¢ $43 87d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 87d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 87d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $47 87d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $47 87d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $50 87d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $50 87d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $42 87d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $42 88d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? SELL No 98¢ $49 88d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? BUY No 97¢ $49 88d
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $53 88d
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $18 88d
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $35 88d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $52 88d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $52 89d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $40 89d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $41 89d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 99¢ $50 89d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 94¢ $48 89d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $40 89d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $40 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.66 · official $40.66 (match) · 810 history records