Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:27:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
88 0x88eb…9085 other 6 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$13 (-10%) realized +$12 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$16
crypto 31% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +43.4% +29.8% 100% 100% +29.8%
≤30d 1 +43.4% +29.8% 100% 100% +29.8%
≤90d 1 +43.4% +29.8% 100% 100% +29.8%
all 1 +43.4% +29.8% 100% 100% +29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.8% 100% +29.8%
10% +17.3% 100% +17.3%
15% +6.0% 100% +6.0%
20% -4.4% 0% -4.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $55 $35 −$20 (-36%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 21¢ $19 $16 −$3 (-16%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.32 · official $90.36 (match) · 20 history records