Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:02:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88ec…7ef0 sports 1097 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d only
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$339 (-5%) realized −$349 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate49%505W / 533L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day62.8pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days−$168
14 days−$211
30 days−$421
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$189
other 24% −$112
weather 17% −$13
politics 5% −$129
world 3% −$5
crypto 3% +$26
tech 1% −$24
economics 1% −$17
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 366 -7.3% -16.1% 57% 46% -21.2%
≤30d 748 -12.8% -21.1% 49% 41% -20.3%
≤90d 1038 -11.0% -19.5% 49% 40% -16.8%
all 1038 -11.0% -19.5% 49% 40% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.5% 40% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -27.2% 32% -24.8%
15% -34.2% 25% -32.0%
20% -40.7% 20% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized−$349
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses505 / 533
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions59
Markets (closed)1038 / 1097
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day62.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 59 History 1038 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michael Saylor appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31? Yes 7¢ 42¢ $2 $12 +$10 (+499%)
Will Anatoly Yakovenko appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31? Yes 7¢ 40¢ $2 $12 +$10 (+479%)
Will Thomas Lee appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31? Yes 7¢ 39¢ $2 $11 +$9 (+454%)
Will Sui reach $2.00 before 2027? Yes 9¢ 50¢ $2 $11 +$9 (+456%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 18? No 76¢ 76¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? No 72¢ 100¢ $6 $9 +$2 (+39%)
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? No 55¢ 50¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-9%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 59¢ 50¢ $8 $6 −$1 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? No 83¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? No 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $30B by December 31? Yes 15¢ 38¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+150%)
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? No 30¢ 23¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Lucian Croitoru be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+50%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 38¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+124%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No 33¢ 49¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+48%)
Will Mugur Isărescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 19? No 77¢ 74¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-21%)
Will Elena Lasconi be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 21¢ 12¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-46%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 22¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+157%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$19 +190%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 19? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? Jun 17 $13 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $10 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +42%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3 +$2 +62%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2 +$2 +101%
Haiti elections delayed again? Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 16 $3 +$3 +80%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 16 $2 +$4 +173%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +14%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +132%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 +$3 +124%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +27%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 15 $11 +$2 +22%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $7 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 +$2 +12%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $4 $0 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -68%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $3 +$1 +32%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +177%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -70%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +55%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$6 -59%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 76¢ $10 13m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $8 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 30¢ $7 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 8h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 29¢ $9 8h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 8h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 77¢ $2 8h
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 100¢ $1 9h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? SELL Yes 35¢ $7 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 62¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 96¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 96¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 96¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 96¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 96¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.54 · official $148.60 (match) · 3475 history records