Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:25:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88ee…13d8 sports 456 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,206 (-9%) realized −$1,285 · open +$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%186W / 264L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$303now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$200
crypto 14% −$605
other 13% −$266
tech 2% −$142
finance 2% +$9
world 1% −$66
politics 1% +$76
economics 1% −$34
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 33 -28.8% -35.5% 36% 36% -22.4%
≤90d 89 -23.5% -30.8% 37% 37% -23.2%
all 450 -3.1% -12.3% 41% 41% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 41% -18.5%
10% -20.7% 39% -26.3%
15% -28.4% 38% -33.4%
20% -35.4% 35% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$23 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$303
Realized−$1,285
Unrealized+$79
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses186 / 264
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions6
Markets (closed)450 / 456
History coverage152d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 450 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 36¢ $99 $176 +$78 (+79%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 100¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+16%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Will Tunisia be the worst-placed African nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 59¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 04 $15 −$14 -95%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 04 $15 −$15 -96%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 04 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Jun 04 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 04 $15 −$15 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $107 −$59 -55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $50 −$37 -74%
Will Canada vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 01 $20 −$20 -98%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $25 +$19 +73%
Norway vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $25 +$20 +79%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $19 +$37 +191%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $45 −$41 -92%
Set 1 Winner: Wong vs Tarvet Jun 01 $25 −$25 -98%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 01 $7 −$7 -97%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $13 −$13 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $80 −$79 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $17 −$17 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $34 +$43 +128%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) May 31 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) May 31 $25 −$25 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $20 +$24 +119%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 30 $33 +$10 +31%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 30 $35 +$17 +48%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 30 $25 +$33 +129%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 30 $46 +$28 +59%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 30 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $25 −$25 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $154 +$47 +31%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 28 $48 +$37 +78%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $74 +$72 +98%
Game Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) May 28 $46 −$45 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 27 $46 −$40 -87%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 27 $25 +$40 +158%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5) May 27 $16 −$16 -98%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) May 26 $25 −$23 -89%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner May 26 $15 −$13 -87%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 26 $26 +$58 +226%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 4.5 May 25 $18 +$13 +73%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) May 25 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $15 −$15 -97%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 24 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $17 −$16 -90%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner May 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 23 $27 −$27 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 22 $30 −$29 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qual May 22 $17 +$17 +101%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+1.5) May 22 $17 +$23 +134%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $40 +$26 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 62¢ $25 49m
Will Tunisia be the worst-placed African nation in the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 86¢ $25 1h
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $25 1h
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World BUY Yes 61¢ $25 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 86¢ $25 1h
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $35 7d
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $67 7d
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) SELL Spurs 0¢ $0 23d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) SELL Spurs 3¢ $1 23d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) SELL Spurs 2¢ $1 23d
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) BUY Spurs 31¢ $10 23d
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) BUY Spurs 37¢ $10 23d
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) BUY Spurs 35¢ $10 23d
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) BUY Spurs 45¢ $15 23d
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) BUY Spurs 44¢ $10 23d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Spurs 45¢ $15 23d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Spurs 50¢ $15 23d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Spurs 55¢ $15 23d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 20¢ $2 23d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 20¢ $45 23d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 41¢ $5 23d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 43¢ $25 23d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 43¢ $76 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? SELL Yes 9¢ $13 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 31¢ $50 24d
Will Canada vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on June 1? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 25¢ $39 25d
Set 1 Winner: Wong vs Tarvet BUY Tarvet 47¢ $25 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $303.01 · official $302.29 (match) · 1409 history records