Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:38:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
88 0x88ee…9dad weather 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$54 (+5%) realized +$50 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate75%74W / 25L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days−$38
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 85% +$38
other 10% +$15
sports 4% −$8
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -19.3% -27.0% 60% 35% -17.3%
≤30d 66 -5.4% -14.4% 68% 48% -12.9%
≤90d 99 +1.7% -8.0% 75% 55% -6.0%
all 99 +1.7% -8.0% 75% 55% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 55% -6.0%
10% -16.8% 30% -15.0%
15% -24.8% 11% -23.2%
20% -32.2% 5% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses74 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)99 / 106
History coverage89d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+26%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+14%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 25? Yes 88¢ 84¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $74 +$10 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $56 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $8 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 24? Jun 24 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $53 +$18 +34%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $3 +$2 +44%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 24? Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $4 +$1 +35%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $2 −$1 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $11 +$3 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $8 +$1 +18%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $6 +$2 +27%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +48%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $4 −$1 -22%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $9 +$1 +10%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 $0 +2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $21 +$1 +7%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $3 +$1 +21%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 19? Jun 19 $13 +$2 +14%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $1 +$2 +177%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $1 $0 -10%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +15%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 18 $2 −$2 -90%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 18 $3 −$2 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on April 4? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 1? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $23 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $14 +$5 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$3 +282%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$2 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$2 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $85 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 25? BUY No 87¢ $74 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 25? BUY Yes 88¢ $4 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 24? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 15h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 24? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 95¢ $38 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 94¢ $19 20h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 24? BUY Yes 94¢ $8 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 24? BUY Yes 91¢ $7 21h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 24? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 23h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $71 26h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $4 37h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $3 37h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 24? SELL No 85¢ $10 38h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 24? BUY No 82¢ $10 46h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? BUY Yes 93¢ $9 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 74¢ $4 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 22¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 36¢ $2 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.73 · official $52.73 (match) · 263 history records