Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:44:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88f0…310e politics 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 664d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%4W / 81L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% −$21
other 26% −$4
economics 12% −$2
sports 0% $0
world 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
all 85 -14.4% -22.5% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -29.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -36.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -42.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -29% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

664d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses4 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 85
History coverage664d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $54 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $54 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $54 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $54 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 18 $55 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $56 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Mar 27 $56 $0 +0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 20 $56 $0 +0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 14 $56 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 09 $56 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 02 $54 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 25 $54 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump jail Hillary Clinton? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Betsy DeVos be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Milady flip BAYC in 2024? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
U.S. Recession in 2024? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Steelers win the AFC Championship? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Steve Scalise be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 1 Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Trump deportation executive order in first 100 days? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Breece Hall be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024? Jan 26 $3 $0 -0%
Andrew Tate guilty of human trafficking in 2024? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Saquon Barkley be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will A.J. Brown be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alperen Sengun lead the NBA in Rebounds? Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Broncos win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the NFC West? Dec 21 $0 $0 -0%
GOP wins popular vote by 5-6%? Dec 21 $0 $0 +1%
Will Miami (FL) win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the AFC West? Nov 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will AOC win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Nov 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elizabeth Warren win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential El Nov 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Ele Nov 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Elec Nov 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Illegal" in his speech after the election is called? Nov 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Todd Blanche for Attorney General? Nov 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will another movie gross most in 2024? Nov 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will AOC win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 24h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 12d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 12d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 22d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 22d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 33d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 34d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 40d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 41d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 46d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 47d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $56 67d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $55 68d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $55 79d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $56 80d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar SELL No 100¢ $56 88d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar BUY No 100¢ $56 89d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 96d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 97d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 102d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 102d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 105d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 106d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $56 107d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $56 107d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $39 114d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 114d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 115d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $5 136d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 189 history records