Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:26:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88f0…c9a4 crypto 1902 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$408 (+1%) realized +$407 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%1010W / 823L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day40.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$75
14 days+$75
30 days+$164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$155
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 150 +26.6% +14.5% 65% 65% +14.0%
≤30d 1015 +2.3% -7.4% 53% 53% -7.9%
≤90d 1833 +0.5% -9.1% 55% 53% -9.6%
all 1833 +0.5% -9.1% 55% 53% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 53% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 50% -18.3%
15% -25.7% 46% -26.2%
20% -33.0% 43% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$23 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$407
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses1010 / 823
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1833 / 1902
History coverage53d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day40.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1833 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 48¢ 96¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+101%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$8 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$8 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$8 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$8 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.01 · official $0.58 · 3243 history records