Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:03:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
88 0x88f1…9c92 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$24 (+3%) realized +$34 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%10W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$110
14 days−$110
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$139
sports 11% +$93
world 2% −$20
politics 2% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -3.8% -12.9% 33% 33% -22.8%
≤30d 18 -3.8% -12.9% 33% 33% -22.8%
≤90d 18 -3.8% -12.9% 33% 33% -22.8%
all 22 +24.3% +12.5% 45% 45% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.5% 45% -8.0%
10% +1.7% 36% -16.8%
15% -8.1% 36% -24.8%
20% -17.1% 36% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$19 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$34
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses10 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage232d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $251 −$6 -2%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$16 -33%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$8 +15%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$7 -66%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$11 +21%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $74 −$17 -23%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$50 +487%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$23 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 10 $25 +$19 +75%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $20 +$20 +98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Oct 31 $20 +$15 +75%
Will Trump and Xi shake hands for 10 seconds or more on October 30, 20 Oct 31 $20 +$71 +354%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $197 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $201 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 8h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $48 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 53¢ $34 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 13h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 13h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $58 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 26h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 44h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 45h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 45h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $10 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $8 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $23 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 67¢ $49 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 42 history records