Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:11:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
88 0x88f2…a502 other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate54%14W / 12L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$3
crypto 17% −$2
politics 16% −$3
world 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 8 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 10 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
all 26 -0.1% -9.6% 54% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses14 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage249d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 09 $5 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 31? Nov 02 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,000 on October 27? Oct 28 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 26? Oct 27 $19 $0 +0%
Will Vít Rakušan be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic afte Oct 24 $19 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Oct 24 $19 $0 -0%
Will "Black Phone 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 20m? Oct 19 $19 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $250 October 13-19? Oct 18 $800 −$1 -0%
Will Other be the most valuable company on October 31? Oct 18 $802 −$2 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? Oct 18 $807 −$5 -1%
Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2025? Oct 18 $808 −$2 -0%
Will there be no new Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 18 $812 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on October 17? Oct 17 $19 −$1 -4%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? Oct 17 $19 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31? Oct 16 $20 −$1 -3%
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on October 14? Oct 14 $20 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 37h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 9d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 14d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 17d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 18d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 18d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 18d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 19d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 24d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 26d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 27d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 28d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 31d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 35d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 39d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 41d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $42 41d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $5 192d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 231d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 95¢ $5 234d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,000 on October 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 235d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $19 237d
Will Vít Rakušan be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic afte SELL No 99¢ $19 238d
Will Vít Rakušan be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic afte BUY No 100¢ $19 238d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? SELL No 100¢ $19 238d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.65 · official $99.65 (match) · 65 history records