Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:10:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
88 0x88f6…5ee7 crypto 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$98 (+0%) realized +$99 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate90%98W / 11L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$702per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$18
14 days+$27
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$95
politics 3% −$2
culture 2% −$1
sports 1% −$1
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 30 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 99 +0.2% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 109 +0.1% -9.4% 90% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$1,132) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.24 per $1 lost it wins $14.24
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$1,213
Realized+$99
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses98 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage227d
Avg bet$702
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,214 $1,213 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $1,213 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1,207 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,206 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,198 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 15? Jun 15 $255 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 15? Jun 15 $941 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,195 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,194 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,193 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,192 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,190 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,187 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on June 7? Jun 07 $1,186 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,185 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,184 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 3? Jun 03 $1,118 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 3? Jun 03 $65 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,182 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.80 on June 1? Jun 01 $215 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on June 1? Jun 01 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 1? Jun 01 $450 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on June 1? Jun 01 $364 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? May 30 $1,177 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 29? May 29 $1,176 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 28? May 28 $1,173 +$3 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on May 27? May 27 $1,042 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on May 27? May 27 $130 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 24? May 24 $332 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on May 24? May 24 $837 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 23? May 23 $1,169 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 22? May 22 $1,168 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on May 21? May 21 $1,166 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 20? May 20 $535 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 20? May 20 $630 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? May 19 $1,162 +$2 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 18? May 18 $532 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on May 18? May 18 $349 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 18? May 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 18? May 18 $213 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 11-17? May 18 $56 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.00 on May 16? May 16 $277 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on May 16? May 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on May 16? May 16 $304 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.80 and $1.90 on May 16? May 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.90 on May 16? May 16 $179 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 16? May 16 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 14? May 14 $1,156 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on May 13? May 13 $1,154 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 12? May 11 $1,156 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on May 11? May 11 $420 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1,214 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,213 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1,207 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,206 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $38 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $11 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $1,138 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $11 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $941 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $255 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $1,195 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,194 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,193 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,192 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,190 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $1,190 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $1,187 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $1,186 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $1,185 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $1,184 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $1,118 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $65 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $1,182 19d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $51 22d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $100 22d
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.80 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $115 22d
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.80 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $100 22d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $150 22d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $201 22d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $100 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,213.12 · official $1,213.12 (match) · 266 history records