Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:24:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88fa…a8c1 tech 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 514d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,992 (+10%) realized +$2,121 · open −$129
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate57%21W / 16L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$533per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$194
30 days+$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% +$2,889
tech 31% −$1,315
other 15% +$599
crypto 4% −$235
world 0% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +44.0% +30.3% 100% 100% +10.2%
≤90d 5 +11.6% +0.9% 80% 60% +4.7%
all 37 -1.0% -10.4% 57% 49% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 49% +0.1%
10% -19.0% 35% -9.5%
15% -26.8% 30% -18.2%
20% -34.0% 22% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$614) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$244 vs −$188 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

514d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized+$2,121
Unrealized−$129
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses21 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage514d
Avg bet$533
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? Yes 31¢ 16¢ $274 $145 −$129 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $747 +$93 +12%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $41 +$15 +38%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $105 +$86 +82%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 25 $614 +$48 +8%
GPT-5.5 released by April 17, 2026? Apr 15 $5 −$4 -82%
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? Feb 25 $18 +$3 +16%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Feb 19 $40 +$23 +57%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 05 $18 −$18 -100%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 9? Dec 09 $47 +$61 +129%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22? Nov 16 $100 +$55 +55%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? Nov 16 $300 +$53 +18%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? Nov 06 $128 −$26 -20%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 28 $84 +$56 +67%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 15 $552 −$552 -100%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10? Aug 08 $165 +$172 +104%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 5? Aug 05 $264 −$213 -81%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15? Aug 02 $207 −$30 -15%
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? Jul 31 $580 −$33 -6%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 28 $193 −$14 -7%
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by July 31? Jul 27 $90 +$45 +50%
Will courts block Trump's tariffs before June? May 29 $186 +$486 +261%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 14 $1,223 +$480 +39%
Will Google have the top AI model on May 31? May 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get less than 60m views in first 24 May 07 $51 +$1 +2%
Will NDP win 9 or less seats in the next Canadian Election? May 05 $351 −$318 -91%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 29 $4,697 +$2,153 +46%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 29 $1,613 +$232 +14%
Will the Liberal Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election? Apr 28 $1,856 +$640 +34%
Will Conservatives flip Liberals in the polls before the election? Apr 28 $435 −$435 -100%
Will GPT-5 be released by June 30? Apr 27 $1,787 −$852 -48%
Will GPT-5 be released by March 31? Mar 25 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Mar 20 $700 +$180 +26%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Mar 12 $800 −$235 -29%
Trump tariffs on Canada in effect by May 1? Mar 04 $105 −$105 -100%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Mar 02 $340 +$18 +5%
Will GPT-4.5 be released by February 28? Feb 27 $1,356 +$212 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY Yes 20¢ $42 2h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY Yes 33¢ $70 4d
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY Yes 33¢ $70 4d
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY Yes 37¢ $48 5d
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY Yes 37¢ $12 5d
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY Yes 37¢ $2 5d
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY Yes 37¢ $17 5d
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY Yes 37¢ $11 5d
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY Yes 37¢ $4 7d
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY Yes 40¢ $4 7d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $55 13d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $36 13d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $747 13d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $41 13d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $13 13d
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $614 60d
GPT-5.5 released by April 17, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 68d
GPT-5.5 released by April 17, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 69d
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $20 117d
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $18 118d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $63 123d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $13 148d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 148d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 148d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 158d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 158d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 158d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 158d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 158d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 166d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.18 · official $145.18 (match) · 272 history records