Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:33:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88ff…5102 sports 279 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,099 (-27%) realized −$4,184 · open +$85
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%74W / 199L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$109est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$42
14 days−$717
30 days−$1,353
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$1,454
other 36% −$2,823
crypto 5% +$46
world 1% +$15
finance 1% −$80
politics 0% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +13.4% +2.6% 50% 50% +17.7%
≤30d 59 -48.2% -53.1% 15% 15% -46.8%
≤90d 123 -39.2% -45.0% 20% 20% -47.2%
all 273 -20.1% -27.7% 27% 27% -37.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.7% 27% -37.3%
10% -34.6% 27% -43.3%
15% -40.9% 27% -48.8%
20% -46.7% 27% -53.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$54 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized−$4,184
Unrealized+$85
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses74 / 199
Est. fees paid−$109
Open positions2
Markets (closed)273 / 279
History coverage151d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 273 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Japan 28¢ 50¢ $49 $89 +$40 (+80%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 19¢ 44¢ $34 $80 +$46 (+134%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 128 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 29 $21 −$20 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $37 +$61 +168%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$27 +132%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 29 $19 +$15 +81%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $21 −$21 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $53 −$52 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $78 −$39 -50%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $19 −$19 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $16 −$16 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $50 −$48 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $46 +$104 +226%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$154 +307%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $57 −$55 -98%
Croatia to score first vs. England? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $77 −$75 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $47 −$46 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $57 −$56 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $26 −$26 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $68 −$66 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $99 −$97 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $56 −$55 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $61 +$176 +287%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $66 −$64 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $46 −$45 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $291 −$285 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $89 +$202 +226%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 −$18 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $199 −$196 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $48 −$47 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $214 −$210 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $42 −$41 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $31 +$75 +246%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $19 −$19 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 28¢ $50 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $16 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $16 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $34 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $19 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND W BUY 3¢ $26 4d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 AND Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AN BUY 6¢ $36 4d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Spread: Englan BUY 4¢ $35 6d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Spread: England (-3.5) AND Spread: Colombi BUY 2¢ $21 6d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $21 8d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $26 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $45 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $31 9d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $19 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $36 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 43¢ $40 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 57¢ $37 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $38 9d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $19 9d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $16 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.71 · official $85.14 · 573 history records