Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:32:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
89 0x8900…4d52 politics 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,035 (+6%) realized +$979 · open +$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate66%19W / 10L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$487per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$3,150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$15
14 days+$97
30 days+$312
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% +$346
other 21% −$376
world 18% +$252
tech 8% +$801
sports 1% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -48.1% -53.1% 50% 0% -7.1%
≤30d 17 -6.0% -15.0% 76% 53% -4.0%
≤90d 29 -10.2% -18.7% 66% 45% -3.2%
all 29 -10.2% -18.7% 66% 45% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 45% -3.2%
10% -26.5% 24% -12.4%
15% -33.6% 17% -20.9%
20% -40.1% 14% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$91 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$3,150
Realized+$979
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses19 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)29 / 38
History coverage58d
Avg bet$487
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 86¢ 86¢ $1,200 $1,204 +$4 (+0%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 92¢ 96¢ $700 $732 +$32 (+5%)
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $693 $696 +$2 (+0%)
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $285 $300 +$15 (+5%)
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $50 $68 +$18 (+36%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $30 $20 −$10 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $2,530 +$95 +4%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $372 −$110 -30%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $284 +$10 +4%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $153 +$102 +67%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $81 +$7 +8%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 05 $354 +$74 +21%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $98 +$55 +56%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%? Jun 03 $46 +$16 +34%
Kash Patel out by May 31? Jun 01 $251 +$33 +13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $600 +$98 +16%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $603 +$76 +13%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 30 $57 −$55 -96%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? May 30 $81 +$33 +40%
Claude 4.8 released by June 15? May 28 $1,003 +$76 +8%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $149 −$145 -97%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El May 27 $61 +$9 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 26 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $1,004 +$113 +11%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 17 $303 +$73 +24%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 13 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? May 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 10 $600 +$53 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $2,000 +$152 +8%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $101 −$100 -100%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $101 +$74 +73%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 04 $2,866 −$38 -1%
Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? Apr 30 $1,000 −$366 -37%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 27 $500 +$707 +141%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 66¢ $81 1h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 68¢ $289 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 24h
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 75¢ $106 2d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 74¢ $336 2d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 73¢ $258 2d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 86¢ $1,207 2d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $36 4d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No 48¢ $62 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 6d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 6d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $156 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 97¢ $206 11d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $78 13d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $15 13d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $15 13d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 89¢ $191 13d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 68¢ $87 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 31¢ $41 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 22¢ $28 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 21¢ $18 14d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $10 16d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 61¢ $81 16d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 97¢ $63 16d
Kash Patel out by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $702 16d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $81 16d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 97¢ $1,001 16d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 95¢ $428 17d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $291 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,149.63 · official $3,149.63 (match) · 152 history records