Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:35:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8904…66d1 weather 11 markets active 6d ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$50 (-59%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -61% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%1W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-64.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -95.3% -95.7% 0% 0% -96.4%
≤30d 11 -61.2% -64.9% 9% 0% -66.8%
≤90d 11 -61.2% -64.9% 9% 0% -66.8%
all 11 -61.2% -64.9% 9% 0% -66.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -64.9% 0% -66.8%
10% -68.3% 0% -69.9%
15% -71.3% 0% -72.8%
20% -74.2% 0% -75.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -61% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses1 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 11? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 11 $8 −$7 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Jun Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Jun Jun 10 $11 −$10 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun Jun 10 $10 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 10 $4 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Jun Jun 09 $5 −$5 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 6d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 11? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 11? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 11? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? SELL Yes 82¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? SELL Yes 82¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 26¢ $5 7d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL Yes 10¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 28¢ $4 7d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 7d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 9? BUY Yes $4 8d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun SELL Yes 99¢ $2 8d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Jun BUY Yes $2 8d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Jun BUY Yes $4 8d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Jun SELL Yes $0 8d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Jun BUY Yes $4 8d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Jun BUY Yes $2 8d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Jun BUY Yes $4 8d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun SELL No 99¢ $1 8d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun SELL No 99¢ $2 8d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun SELL No 99¢ $2 8d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $4 8d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $2 8d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $4 8d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY Yes 99¢ $4 8d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 9? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 8d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 9? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 8d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Jun SELL Yes $1 8d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Jun BUY Yes $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 9? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records