Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:14:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
89 0x8904…e519 other 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate13%14W / 92L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$7
politics 21% −$5
sports 7% +$30
economics 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 106 +2.4% -7.3% 13% 10% -9.5%
all 106 +2.4% -7.3% 13% 10% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 10% -9.5%
10% -16.2% 10% -18.1%
15% -24.3% 9% -26.0%
20% -31.7% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×7.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses14 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)106 / 106
History coverage82d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 106 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $25 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $42 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $34 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $196 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $34 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $33 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $29 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 01 $79 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 31 $48 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $39 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 24 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $400 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $205 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $207 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 15 $204 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 14 $210 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $200 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $211 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $627 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $207 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $646 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $208 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $216 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 04 $224 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $218 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $219 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $402 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $221 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $893 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $215 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 01 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $205 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $413 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $216 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $223 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $353 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $208 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $219 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $374 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 15 $221 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $432 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 15 $227 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $221 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $44 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $44 4h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 2d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 4d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 5d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 5d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 6d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 6d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $45 7d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $45 7d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 9d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 10d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $33 11d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 11d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $46 11d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $46 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 13d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $29 13d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 14d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $48 15d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $48 15d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 16d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 16d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $46 22d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $46 22d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $79 22d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $40 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 275 history records