Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:18:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
89 0x8908…90b0 other 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+2%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%5W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$8
other 41% +$13
world 7% $0
crypto 8% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +9.9% -0.5% 28% 28% -8.3%
≤30d 18 +9.9% -0.5% 28% 28% -8.3%
≤90d 18 +9.9% -0.5% 28% 28% -8.3%
all 18 +9.9% -0.5% 28% 28% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 28% -8.3%
10% -10.1% 28% -17.1%
15% -18.7% 28% -25.1%
20% -26.7% 22% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses5 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 38¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+37%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 53¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-24%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$8 +158%
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$3 +45%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -89%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +249%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$9 +442%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 18m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $4 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 66¢ $9 2h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $13 3h
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 24h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 27h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 27h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 27h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 30h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 30h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 30h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 30h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 47h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 47h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.30 · official $5.30 (match) · 34 history records