Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:27:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8908…2485 politics 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%2W / 26L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$524per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$18
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$9
crypto 14% −$5
other 13% −$1
world 10% −$2
tech 9% −$1
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 28 -0.3% -9.8% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 28 -0.3% -9.8% 7% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,366) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses2 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage85d
Avg bet$524
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? Jun 18 $38 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,464 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $37 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,366 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Jun 17 $1,321 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,385 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 16 $1,508 −$4 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $1,317 −$1 -0%
Will Tallon Griekspoor be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,431 −$2 -0%
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $1,411 −$1 -0%
Will Rodrygo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,391 −$2 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? Apr 21 $232 +$1 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $224 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $222 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 17 $232 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $228 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 16 $223 $0 -0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Apr 16 $6 $0 -2%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats Apr 13 $12 $0 -4%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $187 $0 -0%
Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 29 $23 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 29 $24 $0 -0%
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 25 $147 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 25 $79 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Mar 25 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 1h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 1h
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $27 2h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 2h
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $12 2h
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $38 2h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,462 24h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $37 24h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 24h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,395 25h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 25h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 25h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 25h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $238 25h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 25h
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca SELL No 100¢ $960 26h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $39 26h
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca SELL No 100¢ $360 26h
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $1,321 26h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 45h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,383 45h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $16 45h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,329 45h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 46h
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $1,504 46h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 46h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 46h
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $1,476 46h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $992 46h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records