Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:36:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

89
0x890e…7ec1
other · 30 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$8,997 -46%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$10,286 · open −$1,926
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$12,258
Realized−$10,286
Unrealized−$1,926
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses30 / 294
Open positions120
Markets (closed)324 / 30
Avg bet$647
Trades / day2534.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 120 History 324 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10,286
7 days−$10,286
14 days−$10,286
30 days−$10,286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 45¢ 69¢ $1,385 $2,130 +$745 (+54%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $1,210 $1,245 +$35 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 19¢ 42¢ $339 $745 +$405 (+119%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $721 $731 +$10 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 7¢ 22¢ $230 $698 +$467 (+203%)
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in July 2026? No 92¢ 93¢ $660 $664 +$3 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 6¢ 12¢ $323 $621 +$298 (+92%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 7¢ 18¢ $223 $573 +$351 (+158%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 5¢ 26¢ $110 $549 +$439 (+397%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $535 $535 −$1 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $478 $492 +$14 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $319 $403 +$84 (+26%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 11¢ 50¢ $85 $390 +$305 (+357%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 11¢ 5¢ $708 $307 −$402 (-57%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $683 $280 −$403 (-59%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 5¢ 10¢ $108 $204 +$96 (+89%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $149 $155 +$6 (+4%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $144 $145 +$1 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $139 $140 +$1 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets in July 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $159 $89 −$71 (-44%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $73 $73 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets in July 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $71 $71 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets in July 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $67 $67 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $101 −$104 -103%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$18 +1924%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $20 −$239 -1215%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $85 −$111 -130%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 12 $182 −$190 -104%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 12 $123 −$198 -160%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 12 $42 −$48 -114%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $93 −$97 -104%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $15 −$14 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$6 -976%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in May 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +517%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $63 −$68 -107%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$5 +1016%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$5 -1069%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 12 $27 −$55 -206%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $30 −$48 -159%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 12 $33 −$26 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $40 −$44 -109%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$20 -207%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $37 −$71 -188%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 12 $17 −$106 -617%
Will the US strike 1 country in 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will "DAS GETRÄUMTE ABENTEUER by Valeska GRISEBACH" win Palme d'Or at Jun 12 $23 −$26 -116%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $136 −$136 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $101 −$104 -103%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 12 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $60 +$399 +670%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $77 −$77 -100%
Will "NAGI NOTES by FUKADA Koji" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Fil Jun 12 $23 −$28 -120%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $14 −$187 -1348%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets in May 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$19 -620%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $51 −$104 -205%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M Jun 12 $6 −$46 -712%
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets in May 2026? Jun 12 $27 −$17 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $85 −$75 -88%
Will the US strike 0 countries in 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$4 -154%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $40 −$44 -110%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets in May 2026? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $33 −$41 -125%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$43 -112%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $48 +$112 +233%
Will "ANOTHER DAY by Jeanne HERRY" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes F Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets in May 2026? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$1,390
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 0m
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2m
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2m
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $20 4m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 4m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 5m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 5m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $59 6m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $2 6m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 6m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 8m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 9m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 9m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 10m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 10m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 10m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $22 11m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 16m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $22 16m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $29 17m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $15 17m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $21 17m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $0 17m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $0 17m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $14 17m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 324 -8.6% -17.3% 9% 8% -54.7%
≤30d 324 -8.6% -17.3% 9% 8% -54.7%
≤90d 324 -8.6% -17.3% 9% 8% -54.7%
all 324 -8.6% -17.3% 9% 8% -54.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2534.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 8% -54.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 8% -59.0%
15% -32.4% 8% -63.0%
20% -39.1% 7% -66.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,258.33 · official $12,235.03 (match) · 3500 history records