Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:31:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
89 0x8912…8f81 crypto 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$177 (+95%) realized +$177 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%18W / 27L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% +$166
other 28% +$1
world 28% +$13
finance 2% −$4
sports 2% +$2
politics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 45 +28.4% +16.2% 40% 36% +60.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.2% 36% +60.5%
10% +5.1% 27% +45.1%
15% -5.1% 27% +31.1%
20% -14.4% 20% +18.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +130% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×9.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.07 per $1 lost it wins $6.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$177
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses18 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage160d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Feb 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Feb 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 10 $1 +$3 +281%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Feb 10 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Feb 10 $7 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Feb 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Feb 10 $2 +$13 +646%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 10 $1 $0 +45%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 10 $1 $0 +46%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 10 $1 $0 +46%
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) Feb 10 $1 +$1 +92%
Spread: Seahawks (-5.5) Feb 10 $1 +$1 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12PM ET Feb 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Feb 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 05 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 05 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 05 $4 +$3 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Feb 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Feb 03 $2 +$1 +64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 4? Feb 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Feb 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026? Feb 02 $1 +$1 +79%
Will New York Times Company (NYT) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 1? Feb 01 $5 +$171 +3425%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 5? Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 2? Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 1? Jan 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 1? Jan 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 1? Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 20? Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 15? Jan 30 $2 −$2 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026? Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026? Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 20? Jan 20 $1 −$1 -61%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 17, 2026 (ET)? Jan 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 16, 2026 (ET)? Jan 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)? Jan 17 $10 +$2 +16%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 16 $10 +$10 +97%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)? Jan 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $8 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $1 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.42 · official $50.42 (match) · 89 history records