Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:08:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8912…e003 crypto 1243 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,489 (-21%) realized −$8,486 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%317W / 1120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day38.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 88d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$7,647
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 263 -73.4% -75.9% 8% 8% -92.4%
≤30d 512 -46.4% -51.5% 14% 14% -77.9%
≤90d 1437 -28.1% -34.9% 22% 22% -44.8%
all 1437 -28.1% -34.9% 22% 22% -44.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.9% 22% -44.8%
10% ← realistic here -41.2% 20% -50.1%
15% -46.9% 19% -54.9%
20% -52.1% 17% -59.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$34 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$8,486
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses317 / 1120
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1437 / 1243
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$32
Trades / day38.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1437 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Down 15¢ 12¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $228 −$228 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 23 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $120 −$120 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $95 −$67 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $12 −$10 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$13 -83%
Solana Up or Down - March 18, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $25 −$13 -52%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 24, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $48 −$61 -127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $25 −$26 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $140 −$140 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$7 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 23 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 23 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $179 −$179 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $45 −$29 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $79 −$213 -269%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $45 −$45 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $45 −$45 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $4 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $16 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 25m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $15 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $36 42m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $16 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $19 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $18 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $15 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.99 · official $11.03 (match) · 3500 history records