Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:34:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
89 0x8913…392a crypto 721 markets active 1h ago coverage 333d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$628 (-0%) realized −$628 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate66%477W / 244L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$841
7 days+$861
14 days+$861
30 days+$861
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,224
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -1.7% -11.1% 51% 42% +16.1%
≤30d 45 -1.7% -11.1% 51% 42% +16.1%
≤90d 659 -4.1% -13.2% 67% 64% -11.3%
all 721 -4.8% -13.9% 66% 63% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 63% -10.4%
10% -22.1% 47% -18.9%
15% -29.6% 24% -26.8%
20% -36.5% 13% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$193 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

333d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$628
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses477 / 244
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)721 / 721
History coverage333d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 721 Trades
no open positions (234 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 29 $394 +$382 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 29 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 29 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 29 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 29 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$13 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 29 $620 +$524 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 29 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 29 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 29 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$46 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 29 $277 +$205 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 29 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 29 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 29 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$33 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 28 $31 +$46 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$23 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 28 $104 +$104 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 26 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 26 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 26 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 27 $90 −$88 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 27 $99 −$98 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 27 $88 +$30 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 27 $93 +$24 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 27 $94 +$23 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $394 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $330 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $290 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $211 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $31 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $31 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $277 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $5 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2348 history records